What is the "Best" Progression for You? (Part Two)

Last time I wrote about two betting progressions that very simple to use but still very powerful. This time I will go into more detail on these progressions.

The two progressions mentioned last time are the press-and-pull (or the pull-and-press variant) and the up-a-unit. The press-and-pull progression alternates between pressing the place bet when the number hits and pulling the profits when it hits. The up-a-unit progression adds one unit to the place number each time it hits. In any of these progressions, each number that you place works independently of other numbers. You only take the next step of the progression on the number that hits.

Let’s look at some detailed information for each of these progressions.

First we will look at the numbers for the six and eight with a betting unit size of $10, however, the actual bet on the six and eight must be a multiple of $6.

The strategies are arranged from least aggressive to most aggressive. The columns upon which to focus are the "Total" columns. Notice that for the first few hits the less aggressive strategies outperform the more aggressive strategies. As you rack up more hits, however, the more aggressive your strategy, the better you do.

Now let’s look at the results of these strategies being applied to the four and ten. Using the same $10 betting unit size and assuming you are playing in certain casinos in Tunica or Las Vegas that allow you to buy the four and ten for a $1 vig from $10 to $30, the results are as follows.

Notice in the total columns that the less aggressive strategies still perform better with fewer hits, and even with the reduced house edge of just over 1%, the number of hits before one strategy is favored over another does not change. It still takes eleven hits for the pull-and-press strategy to outperform up-a-unit and it still takes eight hits for press-and-pull to outperform up-a-unit.

Let’s see how the five and nine fare – again a $10 betting unit.

Even with a 4% house edge, it takes eleven hits for pull-and-press to outperform up-a-unit and eight hits for press-and-pull to outperform up-a-unit.

So what is the moral of this little tour of selected statistics? Simply this – sometimes the simplest can be the most powerful. Comparing the results of the simplest progression to the more common and slightly more complicated schemes proves that except for very uncommon hot streaks, you are able to put more of the casino’s money in your pocket (or give less of your money to the casinos). Ask yourself – how often do I hit one specific number more than eight times in a given roll? Unless you can answer that question with a reasonable amount, the KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) principle seems to also apply to progression betting in craps.

Next time we will explore some more complex – and aggressive – progression strategies. Until then, remember: if you can't be kind, at least have the decency to be vague.

Stickman